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São Paulo U20 vs AC Guaratinguetá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
AC Guaratinguetá U20
AC Guaratinguetá U20
Unknown 61'
P. dos Santos 48' (pen)
Pedro Ferreira 38'
G. Miranda 28'
G. Santana 16'
N. Bosshardt 13'
Luis Osorio 7'
8/12/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 15Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

São Paulo U2080%
×Draw14%
AC Guaratinguetá U207%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.63
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.63

São Paulo U20 creates 317% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 8 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.50

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.88

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

AC Guaratinguetá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
93%
São Paulo U20 or AC Guaratinguetá U20
86%
Draw or AC Guaratinguetá U20
20%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
58%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
93%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
73%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
48%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals
47%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals
13%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
92%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

AC Guaratinguetá U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.63

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 0.50 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
80%
level
14%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more
7%

São Paulo U20 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Luis Osorio
13'
N. Bosshardt
16'
G. Santana
28'
G. Miranda
38'
Pedro Ferreira
48'
P. dos SantosPenalty
61'
81'
Enzo Juan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

São Paulo U20 7 – 0 AC Guaratinguetá U20

São Paulo U20 beat AC Guaratinguetá U20 7-0 in Paulista - U20 on August 12, 2025.

Goals: Luis Osorio (7'), N. Bosshardt (13'), G. Santana (16'), G. Miranda (28'), Pedro Ferreira (38'), P. dos Santos (48' pen), ? (61').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.