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Sao Paulo U17 vs Vasco U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Vasco U17
Vasco U17
J. V. Bispo 45'
N. Kauan 37'
V. Joao 90' (pen)
Gabriel Soares 54'
8/19/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 15Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sao Paulo U1739%
×Draw24%
Vasco U1737%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo U17
1.55
Vasco U17
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.50
Vasco U17
1.73

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.30
Vasco U17
1.60

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par
Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw
63%
Sao Paulo U17 or Vasco U17
76%
Draw or Vasco U17
61%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
19%
Vasco U17 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
79%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
46%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
20%
Vasco U17 1+ goals
78%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
45%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
51%
Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + Vasco U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vasco U17 attack 1.73 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more
39%
level
24%
Vasco U17 scores more
37%

Sao Paulo U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
N. Kauan
45'
J. V. Bispo
54'
Gabriel Soares
90'
V. JoaoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Paulo U17 vs Vasco U17

Sao Paulo U17 and Vasco U17 drew 2-2 in Brasileiro U17 on August 19, 2025.

Goals: N. Kauan (37'), J. V. Bispo (45'), Gabriel Soares (54'), V. Joao (90' pen).

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.