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Sao Paulo U17 vs RB Bragantino U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
RB Bragantino U17
RB Bragantino U17
Renan 60'
T. de Moura 14'
Joanderson 67'
Davi Lucas 29'
G. Zabarelli 22' (OG)
E. de Oliveira Lopes Nunes 9'
7/29/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 12Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sao Paulo U1736%
×Draw24%
RB Bragantino U1741%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo U17
1.52
RB Bragantino U17
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.50
RB Bragantino U17
1.95

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.30
RB Bragantino U17
1.55

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

RB Bragantino U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw
59%
Sao Paulo U17 or RB Bragantino U17
76%
Draw or RB Bragantino U17
64%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
17%
RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
78%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
45%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
20%
RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals
80%
RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals
48%
RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
47%
RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

RB Bragantino U17 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.95 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more
36%
level
24%
RB Bragantino U17 scores more
41%

RB Bragantino U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RB Bragantino U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
E. de Oliveira Lopes Nunes
14'
T. de Moura
22'
G. ZabarelliOwn goal
29'
Davi Lucas
60'
Renan
67'
Joanderson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Paulo U17 vs RB Bragantino U17

RB Bragantino U17 beat Sao Paulo U17 4-2 in Brasileiro U17 on July 29, 2025.

Goals: E. de Oliveira Lopes Nunes (9'), T. de Moura (14'), G. Zabarelli (22' o.g.), Davi Lucas (29'), Renan (60'), Joanderson (67').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.