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Sao Paulo U17 vs Palmeiras U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
Preview
20:00
Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17
9/22/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 18
45%
Palmeiras U17
model favours
31%24%45%

Sao Paulo U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sao Paulo U1731%
×Draw24%
Palmeiras U1745%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo U17
1.36
Palmeiras U17
1.68

Palmeiras U17 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.50
Palmeiras U17
2.06

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.30
Palmeiras U17
1.22

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par
Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

Palmeiras U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw
55%
Sao Paulo U17 or Palmeiras U17
76%
Draw or Palmeiras U17
69%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
14%
Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
74%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
39%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
16%
Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
81%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
50%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
41%
Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Palmeiras U17 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + Palmeiras U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Palmeiras U17 attack 2.06 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more
31%
level
24%
Palmeiras U17 scores more
45%

Palmeiras U17 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Palmeiras U17 score first in only 6% of matches
  • 88% of Palmeiras U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Palmeiras U17 have scored in 12 games running
  • Sao Paulo U17 are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Both teams score in 81% of Palmeiras U17’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DWWDD
U17
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sao Paulo U17 face Palmeiras U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Sao Paulo U17 hosting Palmeiras U17. Match starts September 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.