Palmeiras U17 2–1 Sao Paulo U17: Result & Stats

Palmeiras U17

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sao Paulo U17

W. Lopes 61'

Ruan Yago 45'

J. Brenno 45'

6/10/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 5Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmeiras U1763%

×Draw19%

Sao Paulo U1718%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras U17Expected goals in this matchSao Paulo U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.23

Palmeiras U17

2.43

Sao Paulo U17

1.23

Palmeiras U17 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

3.57

creates per match

1.59

0.86

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Palmeiras U17

3.57

Sao Paulo U17

1.59

allows per match

Palmeiras U17

0.86

Sao Paulo U17

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw

82%

Palmeiras U17 or Sao Paulo U17

81%

Draw or Sao Paulo U17

37%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+

41%

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals

91%

Palmeiras U17 2+ goals

69%

Palmeiras U17 3+ goals

43%

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals

71%

Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals

35%

Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)

78%

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.43

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more

63%

level

19%

Sao Paulo U17 scores more

18%

Palmeiras U17 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Ruan Yago

45'

J. Brenno

61'

W. Lopes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff