Sao Paulo U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Sao Paulo U1753%
Gremio U1725%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sao Paulo U17 creates 52% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sao Paulo U17 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches
Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.99
Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Sao Paulo U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Corinthians U17
RB Bragantino U17
Athletico PR U17
Cruzeiro U17
Flamengo RJ U17
Fluminense U17Sao Paulo U17
Bahia U17
Botafogo U17
America MG U17
Santos U17
Internacional U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
Juventude U17
Vitoria U17
Palmeiras U17
Vasco U17
Fortaleza U17
Atletico GO U17Gremio U17If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sao Paulo U17 host Gremio U17 on Tuesday, 17 June 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the Brasileiro U17 2026/2027 season.
Brasileiro U17: Sao Paulo U17 1–0 Gremio U17
Sao Paulo U17 beat Gremio U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 17, 2025.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti in Osasco, São Paulo.