Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sao Paulo U17 vs Flamengo RJ U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
6/9/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sao Paulo U1738%
×Draw25%
Flamengo RJ U1737%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo U17
1.47
Flamengo RJ U17
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.50
Flamengo RJ U17
1.56

allows per match

Sao Paulo U17
1.30
Flamengo RJ U17
1.44

finishing

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par
Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sao Paulo U17 or draw
63%
Sao Paulo U17 or Flamengo RJ U17
75%
Draw or Flamengo RJ U17
62%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
18%
Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
77%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
43%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
18%
Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
76%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
42%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
51%
Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo U17 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.50 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.56 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sao Paulo U17 scores more
38%
level
25%
Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
37%

Sao Paulo U17 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Sao Paulo U17 1–1 Flamengo RJ U17

Sao Paulo U17 and Flamengo RJ U17 drew 1-1 in Brasileiro U17 on June 9, 2026.