São Paulo RS 2–3 Passo Fundo: Result & Stats

São Paulo RS

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Passo Fundo

10/20/2024

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

São Paulo RS36%

×Draw27%

Passo Fundo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Paulo RSExpected goals in this matchPasso Fundo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

São Paulo RS

1.25

Passo Fundo

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

São Paulo RS

0.50

Passo Fundo

1.00

allows per match

São Paulo RS

1.50

Passo Fundo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Paulo RS+0.00on par

Passo Fundo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo RS ↓

Passo Fundo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

São Paulo RS or draw

64%

São Paulo RS or Passo Fundo

73%

Draw or Passo Fundo

64%

Winning margin

São Paulo RS wins by 2+

16%

Passo Fundo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

São Paulo RS 1+ goals

71%

São Paulo RS 2+ goals

36%

São Paulo RS 3+ goals

13%

Passo Fundo 1+ goals

71%

Passo Fundo 2+ goals

36%

Passo Fundo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

São Paulo RS (draw refunded)

50%

Passo Fundo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo RS at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Passo Fundo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo RS attack 0.50 + Passo Fundo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Passo Fundo attack 1.00 + São Paulo RS defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

São Paulo RS scores more

36%

level

27%

Passo Fundo scores more

36%

São Paulo RS at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "São Paulo RS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff