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São Paulo RS vs Juventude II — Copa Gaúcha 2024

São Paulo RS
São Paulo RS
FT
0 – 1
Juventude II
Juventude II
8/28/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

São Paulo RS41%
×Draw28%
Juventude II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo RS
1.29
Juventude II
1.11

São Paulo RS creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

São Paulo RS
0.50
Juventude II
0.73

allows per match

São Paulo RS
1.50
Juventude II
2.09

finishing

São Paulo RS+0.00on par
Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo RS ↓

Juventude II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

São Paulo RS or draw
68%
São Paulo RS or Juventude II
72%
Draw or Juventude II
59%

Winning margin

São Paulo RS wins by 2+
18%
Juventude II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

São Paulo RS 1+ goals
72%
São Paulo RS 2+ goals
37%
São Paulo RS 3+ goals
14%
Juventude II 1+ goals
67%
Juventude II 2+ goals
30%
Juventude II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

São Paulo RS (draw refunded)
56%
Juventude II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo RS at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo RS attack 0.50 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Juventude II attack 0.73 + São Paulo RS defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

São Paulo RS scores more
41%
level
28%
Juventude II scores more
32%

São Paulo RS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "São Paulo RS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: São Paulo RS 0–1 Juventude II

Juventude II beat São Paulo RS 1-0 in Copa Gaúcha on August 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo in Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul.