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São Paulo RS vs Gaúcho — Copa Gaúcha 2024

São Paulo RS
São Paulo RS
FT
0 – 2
Gaúcho
Gaúcho
9/11/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

São Paulo RS20%
×Draw29%
Gaúcho51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo RS
0.70
Gaúcho
1.30

Gaúcho creates 86% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

São Paulo RS
0.50
Gaúcho
1.10

allows per match

São Paulo RS
1.50
Gaúcho
0.90

finishing

São Paulo RS+0.00on par
Gaúcho+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo RS ↓

Gaúcho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

São Paulo RS or draw
49%
São Paulo RS or Gaúcho
71%
Draw or Gaúcho
80%

Winning margin

São Paulo RS wins by 2+
6%
Gaúcho wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

São Paulo RS 1+ goals
50%
São Paulo RS 2+ goals
16%
São Paulo RS 3+ goals
3%
Gaúcho 1+ goals
73%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
37%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

São Paulo RS (draw refunded)
28%
Gaúcho (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo RS at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Gaúcho away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo RS attack 0.50 + Gaúcho defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Gaúcho attack 1.10 + São Paulo RS defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

São Paulo RS scores more
20%
level
29%
Gaúcho scores more
51%

Gaúcho at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gaúcho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: São Paulo RS 0–2 Gaúcho

Gaúcho beat São Paulo RS 2-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo in Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul.