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São Luiz vs Cianorte — Serie D 2025

São Luiz
São Luiz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cianorte
Cianorte
D. Adisa 90'
5/3/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

São Luiz40%
×Draw30%
Cianorte30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Luiz
1.16
Cianorte
0.97

São Luiz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

São Luiz
1.31
Cianorte
0.85

allows per match

São Luiz
1.08
Cianorte
1.00

finishing

São Luiz+0.00on par
Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Luiz ↓

Cianorte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Luiz or draw
70%
São Luiz or Cianorte
70%
Draw or Cianorte
60%

Winning margin

São Luiz wins by 2+
17%
Cianorte wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

São Luiz 1+ goals
69%
São Luiz 2+ goals
32%
São Luiz 3+ goals
11%
Cianorte 1+ goals
62%
Cianorte 2+ goals
25%
Cianorte 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

São Luiz (draw refunded)
57%
Cianorte (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Luiz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Luiz attack 1.31 + Cianorte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cianorte attack 0.85 + São Luiz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

São Luiz scores more
40%
level
30%
Cianorte scores more
30%

São Luiz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "São Luiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
90'
D. Adisa
São
Cianorte
Paulo Marques
Manager: Paulo Marques
Ferro Rafael
Manager: Ferro Rafael

Serie D: São Luiz 0–1 Cianorte

Cianorte beat São Luiz 1-0 in Serie D on May 3, 2026.

Goals: D. Adisa (90').