Sao Luis 1–3 Viana / Real Codó: Result & Stats

Sao Luis

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Viana / Real Codó

11/15/2024

Maranhense - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sao Luis29%

×Draw25%

Viana / Real Codó46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao LuisExpected goals in this matchViana / Real Codó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.61

Sao Luis

1.23

Viana / Real Codó

1.61

Viana / Real Codó creates 31% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.25

creates per match

2.40

0.83

allows per match

0.20

creates per match

Sao Luis

2.25

Viana / Real Codó

2.40

allows per match

Sao Luis

0.83

Viana / Real Codó

0.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par

Viana / Real Codó+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

Viana / Real Codó →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw

54%

Sao Luis or Viana / Real Codó

75%

Draw or Viana / Real Codó

71%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+

12%

Viana / Real Codó wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals

71%

Sao Luis 2+ goals

35%

Sao Luis 3+ goals

13%

Viana / Real Codó 1+ goals

80%

Viana / Real Codó 2+ goals

48%

Viana / Real Codó 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)

39%

Viana / Real Codó (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Viana / Real Codó away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + Viana / Real Codó defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Viana / Real Codó attack 2.40 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sao Luis scores more

29%

level

25%

Viana / Real Codó scores more

46%

Viana / Real Codó at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viana / Real Codó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff