Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sao Luis vs São José MA — Maranhense - 2 2026

Sao Luis
Sao Luis
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
São José MA
São José MA
10/17/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sao Luis63%
×Draw20%
São José MA16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Luis
2.13
São José MA
0.98

Sao Luis creates 117% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sao Luis
2.25
São José MA
1.13

allows per match

Sao Luis
0.83
São José MA
2.00

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par
São José MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

São José MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw
84%
Sao Luis or São José MA
80%
Draw or São José MA
37%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+
40%
São José MA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals
88%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
63%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
35%
São José MA 1+ goals
62%
São José MA 2+ goals
26%
São José MA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)
79%
São José MA (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

São José MA away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + São José MA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

São José MA attack 1.13 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sao Luis scores more
63%
level
20%
São José MA scores more
16%

Sao Luis at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Luis vs São José MA

Sao Luis beat São José MA 3-1 in Maranhense - 2 on October 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.