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Sao Luis vs Luminense — Maranhense - 2 2026

Sao Luis
Sao Luisadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luminense
Luminense
10/15/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sao Luis44%
×Draw29%
Luminense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Luis
1.25
Luminense
0.92

Sao Luis creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sao Luis
2.25
Luminense
1.00

allows per match

Sao Luis
0.83
Luminense
0.25

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par
Luminense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

Luminense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw
73%
Sao Luis or Luminense
71%
Draw or Luminense
56%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+
20%
Luminense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals
71%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
36%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
13%
Luminense 1+ goals
60%
Luminense 2+ goals
23%
Luminense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)
62%
Luminense (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Luminense away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + Luminense defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Luminense attack 1.00 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sao Luis scores more
44%
level
29%
Luminense scores more
27%

Sao Luis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Luis vs Luminense

Sao Luis beat Luminense 1-0 in Maranhense - 2 on October 15, 2025.