Sao Luis 6–0 Expressinho: Result & Stats

Sao Luis

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Expressinho

9/13/2025

Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 1Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sao Luis73%

×Draw18%

Expressinho9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao LuisExpected goals in this matchExpressinho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.58

Sao Luis

2.13

Expressinho

0.58

Sao Luis creates 267% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

0.33

0.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sao Luis

2.25

Expressinho

0.33

allows per match

Sao Luis

0.83

Expressinho

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par

Expressinho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

Expressinho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw

91%

Sao Luis or Expressinho

82%

Draw or Expressinho

27%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+

48%

Expressinho wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals

88%

Sao Luis 2+ goals

63%

Sao Luis 3+ goals

35%

Expressinho 1+ goals

44%

Expressinho 2+ goals

12%

Expressinho 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)

89%

Expressinho (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Expressinho away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + Expressinho defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Expressinho attack 0.33 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sao Luis scores more

73%

level

18%

Expressinho scores more

9%

Sao Luis at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff