Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sao Luis vs Cordino — Maranhense - 2 2026

Sao Luis
Sao Luisadvanced
Pens
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cordino
Cordino
10/12/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sao Luis57%
×Draw25%
Cordino19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Luis
1.63
Cordino
0.81

Sao Luis creates 101% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sao Luis
2.25
Cordino
0.80

allows per match

Sao Luis
0.83
Cordino
1.00

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par
Cordino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

Cordino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw
81%
Sao Luis or Cordino
75%
Draw or Cordino
43%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+
31%
Cordino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals
80%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
48%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
22%
Cordino 1+ goals
56%
Cordino 2+ goals
19%
Cordino 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)
75%
Cordino (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Cordino away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + Cordino defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cordino attack 0.80 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sao Luis scores more
57%
level
25%
Cordino scores more
19%

Sao Luis at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Luis vs Cordino

Sao Luis beat Cordino 2-1 in Maranhense - 2 on October 12, 2025.