Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sao Luis vs Americano Bacabal — Maranhense - 2 2026

Sao Luis
Sao Luis
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Americano Bacabal
Americano Bacabal
9/27/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 4Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sao Luis81%
×Draw13%
Americano Bacabal6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Luis
2.79
Americano Bacabal
0.67

Sao Luis creates 316% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sao Luis
2.25
Americano Bacabal
0.50

allows per match

Sao Luis
0.83
Americano Bacabal
3.33

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par
Americano Bacabal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

Americano Bacabal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw
94%
Sao Luis or Americano Bacabal
87%
Draw or Americano Bacabal
19%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+
60%
Americano Bacabal wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals
94%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
76%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
52%
Americano Bacabal 1+ goals
49%
Americano Bacabal 2+ goals
15%
Americano Bacabal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)
93%
Americano Bacabal (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Americano Bacabal away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + Americano Bacabal defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.79

Americano Bacabal attack 0.50 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Sao Luis scores more
81%
level
13%
Americano Bacabal scores more
6%

Sao Luis at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Luis vs Americano Bacabal

Sao Luis beat Americano Bacabal 5-0 in Maranhense - 2 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.