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Sao Jose W vs Vitória PE W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitória PE W
Vitória PE W
5/1/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Dr. Mário Martins Pereira (São José dos Campos, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sao Jose W78%
×Draw13%
Vitória PE W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose W
2.95
Vitória PE W
0.89

Sao Jose W creates 231% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sao Jose W
1.27
Vitória PE W
0.13

allows per match

Sao Jose W
1.65
Vitória PE W
4.63

finishing

Sao Jose W+0.00on par
Vitória PE W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose W ↓

Vitória PE W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sao Jose W or draw
91%
Sao Jose W or Vitória PE W
87%
Draw or Vitória PE W
22%

Winning margin

Sao Jose W wins by 2+
58%
Vitória PE W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sao Jose W 1+ goals
95%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
79%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
55%
Vitória PE W 1+ goals
59%
Vitória PE W 2+ goals
22%
Vitória PE W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
90%
Vitória PE W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose W at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Vitória PE W away — creates 0.13, concedes 4.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose W attack 1.27 + Vitória PE W defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 2.95

Vitória PE W attack 0.13 + Sao Jose W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sao Jose W scores more
78%
level
13%
Vitória PE W scores more
9%

Sao Jose W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sao Jose W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sao Jose W 4 – 0 Vitória PE W

Sao Jose W beat Vitória PE W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Mário Martins Pereira (São José dos Campos, São Paulo).