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Sao Jose W vs São Paulo W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
São Paulo W
São Paulo W
4/25/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Dr. Mário Martins Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sao Jose W26%
×Draw25%
São Paulo W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose W
1.09
São Paulo W
1.57

São Paulo W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sao Jose W
1.27
São Paulo W
1.50

allows per match

Sao Jose W
1.65
São Paulo W
0.92

finishing

Sao Jose W+0.00on par
São Paulo W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose W ↓

São Paulo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sao Jose W or draw
52%
Sao Jose W or São Paulo W
75%
Draw or São Paulo W
74%

Winning margin

Sao Jose W wins by 2+
10%
São Paulo W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sao Jose W 1+ goals
66%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
30%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
10%
São Paulo W 1+ goals
79%
São Paulo W 2+ goals
46%
São Paulo W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
35%
São Paulo W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose W at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

São Paulo W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose W attack 1.27 + São Paulo W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

São Paulo W attack 1.50 + Sao Jose W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sao Jose W scores more
26%
level
25%
São Paulo W scores more
48%

São Paulo W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Jose W vs São Paulo W

São Paulo W beat Sao Jose W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Mário Martins Pereira in São José dos Campos, São Paulo.