Sao Jose W 0–1 Real Brasília W: Result & Stats

Sao Jose W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Brasília W

5/2/2021

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Dr. Mário Martins Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sao Jose W48%

×Draw24%

Real Brasília W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Jose WExpected goals in this matchReal Brasília W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.23

Sao Jose W

1.68

Real Brasília W

1.23

Sao Jose W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 40 away

1.27

creates per match

0.82

1.65

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Sao Jose W

1.27

Real Brasília W

0.82

allows per match

Sao Jose W

1.65

Real Brasília W

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose W ↓

Real Brasília W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sao Jose W or draw

72%

Sao Jose W or Real Brasília W

76%

Draw or Real Brasília W

52%

Winning margin

Sao Jose W wins by 2+

25%

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sao Jose W 1+ goals

81%

Sao Jose W 2+ goals

50%

Sao Jose W 3+ goals

24%

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

71%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

35%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose W (draw refunded)

63%

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose W at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose W attack 1.27 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.68

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + Sao Jose W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sao Jose W scores more

48%

level

24%

Real Brasília W scores more

28%

Sao Jose W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sao Jose W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff