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Sao Jose vs Treze — Serie D 2026

Sao Jose
Sao Joseadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Treze
Treze
Raphael Soares 79'
Michel 35'
Gustavo Petrocelli 19'
7/18/2026Serie DSerie D · Round of 16Francisco Novelletto Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sao Jose40%
×Draw28%
Treze32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose
1.27
Treze
1.09

Sao Jose creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 41 away

creates per match

Sao Jose
1.21
Treze
1.39

allows per match

Sao Jose
0.79
Treze
1.32

finishing

Sao Jose+0.00on par
Treze+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose ↓

Treze →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sao Jose or draw
68%
Sao Jose or Treze
72%
Draw or Treze
60%

Winning margin

Sao Jose wins by 2+
18%
Treze wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sao Jose 1+ goals
72%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
36%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
14%
Treze 1+ goals
66%
Treze 2+ goals
30%
Treze 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose (draw refunded)
56%
Treze (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Treze away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose attack 1.21 + Treze defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Treze attack 1.39 + Sao Jose defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sao Jose scores more
40%
level
28%
Treze scores more
32%

Sao Jose at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Gustavo Petrocelli
35'
Michel
79'
Raphael Soares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sao Jose 2 – 1 Treze

Sao Jose beat Treze 2-1 in Serie D on July 18, 2026.

Goals: Gustavo Petrocelli (19'), Michel (35'), Raphael Soares (79').

The match was played at Francisco Novelletto Neto in Porto Alegre.