Sao Jose 3–1 São Paulo RS: Result & Stats

Sao Jose

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

São Paulo RS

10/10/2024

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sao Jose90%

×Draw7%

São Paulo RS3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao JoseExpected goals in this matchSão Paulo RS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.05

0.75

Sao Jose

4.05

São Paulo RS

0.75

Sao Jose creates 440% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.60

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

5.50

creates per match

Sao Jose

2.60

São Paulo RS

0.50

allows per match

Sao Jose

1.00

São Paulo RS

5.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Jose+0.00on par

São Paulo RS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose ↓

São Paulo RS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Sao Jose or draw

97%

Sao Jose or São Paulo RS

93%

Draw or São Paulo RS

10%

Winning margin

Sao Jose wins by 2+

77%

São Paulo RS wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Sao Jose 1+ goals

98%

Sao Jose 2+ goals

90%

Sao Jose 3+ goals

74%

São Paulo RS 1+ goals

53%

São Paulo RS 2+ goals

17%

São Paulo RS 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose (draw refunded)

97%

São Paulo RS (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

São Paulo RS away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose attack 2.60 + São Paulo RS defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.05

São Paulo RS attack 0.50 + Sao Jose defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Sao Jose scores more

90%

level

7%

São Paulo RS scores more

3%

Sao Jose at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff