Sao Jose vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Sao Jose46%
Nautico Recife27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sao Jose creates 41% more chances
Season form · 59 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sao Jose ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sao Jose at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches
Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sao Jose attack 1.42 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35
Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + Sao Jose defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Sao Jose at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sampleNautico Recife
Sampaio Correa
Imperatriz
Confiança
Ferroviario
Botafogo PB
Santa Cruz
Treze
ABC
Globo
Ypiranga-RS
JuventudeSao Jose
Paysandu
remo
Volta Redonda
Tombense
BOA
Luverdense
Atlético AcreanoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sao Jose host Nautico Recife on Monday, 3 June 2024 at 23:00. The match is part of the Serie C 2018/2019 season.
Sao Jose 2 – 0 Nautico Recife
Sao Jose beat Nautico Recife 2-0 in Serie C on June 3, 2024.
Goals: Fredson (45+4'), Marcos Calazans (74').
The match was played at Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.