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Sao Jose vs Internacional 2 — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Sao Jose
Sao Jose
FT
4 – 2
Internacional 2
Internacional 2
9/26/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sao Jose75%
×Draw16%
Internacional 29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose
2.35
Internacional 2
0.67

Sao Jose creates 251% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sao Jose
2.60
Internacional 2
0.33

allows per match

Sao Jose
1.00
Internacional 2
2.11

finishing

Sao Jose+0.00on par
Internacional 2+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose ↓

Internacional 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sao Jose or draw
91%
Sao Jose or Internacional 2
84%
Draw or Internacional 2
25%

Winning margin

Sao Jose wins by 2+
51%
Internacional 2 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sao Jose 1+ goals
90%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
68%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
41%
Internacional 2 1+ goals
49%
Internacional 2 2+ goals
15%
Internacional 2 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose (draw refunded)
89%
Internacional 2 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Internacional 2 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose attack 2.60 + Internacional 2 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.35

Internacional 2 attack 0.33 + Sao Jose defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sao Jose scores more
75%
level
16%
Internacional 2 scores more
9%

Sao Jose at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Jose vs Internacional 2

Sao Jose beat Internacional 2 4-2 in Copa Gaúcha on September 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.