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São José MA vs Timon MA — Maranhense - 2 2026

São José MA
São José MA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Timon MA
Timon MA
9/24/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

São José MA22%
×Draw31%
Timon MA47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São José MA
0.67
Timon MA
1.14

Timon MA creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

São José MA
0.33
Timon MA
1.11

allows per match

São José MA
1.17
Timon MA
1.00

finishing

São José MA+0.00on par
Timon MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 73Over: 2773%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 67Yes: 3367%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José MA ↓

Timon MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–119%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

São José MA or draw
53%
São José MA or Timon MA
69%
Draw or Timon MA
78%

Winning margin

São José MA wins by 2+
6%
Timon MA wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

São José MA 1+ goals
49%
São José MA 2+ goals
15%
São José MA 3+ goals
3%
Timon MA 1+ goals
68%
Timon MA 2+ goals
32%
Timon MA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

São José MA (draw refunded)
32%
Timon MA (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José MA at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Timon MA away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José MA attack 0.33 + Timon MA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Timon MA attack 1.11 + São José MA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

São José MA scores more
22%
level
31%
Timon MA scores more
47%

Timon MA at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Timon MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São José MA vs Timon MA

Timon MA beat São José MA 2-1 in Maranhense - 2 on September 24, 2025.