São José MA 0–1 Araioses: Result & Stats

São José MA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Araioses

5/30/2026

Maranhense - 2 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São José MA13%

×Draw36%

Araioses50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São José MAExpected goals in this matchAraioses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.36

0.98

São José MA

0.36

Araioses

0.98

Araioses creates 172% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

0.80

1.17

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

São José MA

0.33

Araioses

0.80

allows per match

São José MA

1.17

Araioses

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São José MA+0.00on par

Araioses+0.00on par

Total goals

Under85
Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No81
Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José MA ↓

Araioses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–026%

0–126%

0–213%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–02%

2–12%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

74%26%1.5

39%61%2.5

15%85%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

São José MA or draw

50%

São José MA or Araioses

64%

Draw or Araioses

87%

Winning margin

São José MA wins by 2+

2%

Araioses wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

São José MA 1+ goals

30%

São José MA 2+ goals

5%

São José MA 3+ goals

1%

Araioses 1+ goals

62%

Araioses 2+ goals

26%

Araioses 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

São José MA (draw refunded)

21%

Araioses (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

10%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José MA at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Araioses away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José MA attack 0.33 + Araioses defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.36

Araioses attack 0.80 + São José MA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

São José MA scores more

13%

level

36%

Araioses scores more

50%

Araioses at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Araioses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff