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São José EC U20 vs Inter Limeira U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São José EC U20
São José EC U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Limeira U20
Inter Limeira U20
Thomaz 41'
4/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Centro Esportivo João do Pulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

São José EC U2033%
×Draw24%
Inter Limeira U2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São José EC U20
1.38
Inter Limeira U20
1.58

Inter Limeira U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

São José EC U20
1.25
Inter Limeira U20
1.25

allows per match

São José EC U20
1.92
Inter Limeira U20
1.50

finishing

São José EC U20+0.00on par
Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José EC U20 ↓

Inter Limeira U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

São José EC U20 or draw
58%
São José EC U20 or Inter Limeira U20
76%
Draw or Inter Limeira U20
67%

Winning margin

São José EC U20 wins by 2+
15%
Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

São José EC U20 1+ goals
75%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
40%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
16%
Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals
79%
Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals
47%
Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José EC U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Inter Limeira U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José EC U20 attack 1.25 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.25 + São José EC U20 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

São José EC U20 scores more
33%
level
24%
Inter Limeira U20 scores more
42%

Inter Limeira U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Limeira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Thomaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São José EC U20 0–1 Inter Limeira U20

Inter Limeira U20 beat São José EC U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: Thomaz (41').

The match was played at Centro Esportivo João do Pulo in São José dos Campos, São Paulo.