São José EC U20 0–2 EC São Bernardo U20

São José EC U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

EC São Bernardo U20

I. Nunes 63'

D. Vieira 10'

6/6/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Centro Esportivo João do Pulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

São José EC U2032%

×Draw25%

EC São Bernardo U2043%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São José EC U20Expected goals in this matchEC São Bernardo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.53

São José EC U20

1.27

EC São Bernardo U20

1.53

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

1.25

creates per match

1.15

1.92

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

São José EC U20

1.25

EC São Bernardo U20

1.15

allows per match

São José EC U20

1.92

EC São Bernardo U20

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São José EC U20+0.00on par

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José EC U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

São José EC U20 or draw

57%

São José EC U20 or EC São Bernardo U20

75%

Draw or EC São Bernardo U20

68%

Winning margin

São José EC U20 wins by 2+

13%

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

São José EC U20 1+ goals

72%

São José EC U20 2+ goals

36%

São José EC U20 3+ goals

14%

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals

78%

EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals

45%

EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

São José EC U20 (draw refunded)

42%

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José EC U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José EC U20 attack 1.25 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + São José EC U20 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

São José EC U20 scores more

32%

level

25%

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more

43%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Vieira

63'

I. Nunes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff