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São José EC U20 vs Aguai U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São José EC U20
São José EC U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aguai U20
Aguai U20
Enzo 44'
G. Rodrigues Custodio 58'
5/9/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Centro Esportivo João do Pulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

São José EC U2041%
×Draw24%
Aguai U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São José EC U20
1.63
Aguai U20
1.48

São José EC U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

São José EC U20
1.25
Aguai U20
1.05

allows per match

São José EC U20
1.92
Aguai U20
2.00

finishing

São José EC U20+0.00on par
Aguai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José EC U20 ↓

Aguai U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

São José EC U20 or draw
65%
São José EC U20 or Aguai U20
76%
Draw or Aguai U20
59%

Winning margin

São José EC U20 wins by 2+
21%
Aguai U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

São José EC U20 1+ goals
80%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
48%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
22%
Aguai U20 1+ goals
77%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
43%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José EC U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Aguai U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José EC U20 attack 1.25 + Aguai U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Aguai U20 attack 1.05 + São José EC U20 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

São José EC U20 scores more
41%
level
24%
Aguai U20 scores more
35%

São José EC U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "São José EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Enzo
58'
G. Rodrigues Custodio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São José EC U20 vs Aguai U20

São José EC U20 and Aguai U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 9, 2025.

Goals: Enzo (44'), G. Rodrigues Custodio (58').

The match was played at Centro Esportivo João do Pulo in São José dos Campos, São Paulo.