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São João Ver vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira — Taça de Portugal 2018

São João Ver
São João Veradvanced
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
9/21/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio Clube São João de Ver

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São João Ver69%
×Draw15%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São João Ver
3.10
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.44

São João Ver creates 115% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

São João Ver
2.20
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.67

allows per match

São João Ver
1.20
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
4.00

finishing

São João Ver+0.00on par
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São João Ver ↓

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

São João Ver or draw
85%
São João Ver or Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
85%
Draw or Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
31%

Winning margin

São João Ver wins by 2+
50%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

São João Ver 1+ goals
95%
São João Ver 2+ goals
81%
São João Ver 3+ goals
58%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1+ goals
76%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2+ goals
42%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

São João Ver (draw refunded)
82%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São João Ver at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São João Ver attack 2.20 + Vasco da Gama Vidigueira defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira attack 1.67 + São João Ver defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

São João Ver scores more
69%
level
15%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira scores more
15%

São João Ver at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "São João Ver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: São João Ver 6–2 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

São João Ver beat Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 6-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Clube São João de Ver in Aveiro.