São João Ver 7–1 Mortágua: Result & Stats

São João Ver

7 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mortágua

9/11/2022

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Clube São João de Ver

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

São João Ver69%

×Draw17%

Mortágua15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São João VerExpected goals in this matchMortágua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.19

São João Ver

2.69

Mortágua

1.19

São João Ver creates 126% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.20

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

São João Ver

2.20

Mortágua

1.17

allows per match

São João Ver

1.20

Mortágua

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São João Ver+0.00on par

Mortágua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São João Ver ↓

Mortágua →

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

São João Ver or draw

85%

São João Ver or Mortágua

83%

Draw or Mortágua

31%

Winning margin

São João Ver wins by 2+

47%

Mortágua wins by 2+

Team goals

São João Ver 1+ goals

93%

São João Ver 2+ goals

74%

São João Ver 3+ goals

49%

Mortágua 1+ goals

70%

Mortágua 2+ goals

33%

Mortágua 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

São João Ver (draw refunded)

82%

Mortágua (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

São João Ver at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Mortágua away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

São João Ver attack 2.20 + Mortágua defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.69

Mortágua attack 1.17 + São João Ver defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

São João Ver scores more

69%

level

17%

Mortágua scores more

15%

São João Ver at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "São João Ver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff