São João Ver 0–1 Marinhense: Result & Stats

São João Ver

0 – 1

Marinhense

M. Ribeiro Vinagre 114'

10/11/2020

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Clube São João de Ver

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São João Ver25%

×Draw21%

Marinhense53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São João VerExpected goals in this matchMarinhense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.10

São João Ver

1.40

Marinhense

2.10

Marinhense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

3.00

1.20

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

São João Ver

2.20

Marinhense

3.00

allows per match

São João Ver

1.20

Marinhense

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São João Ver+0.00on par

Marinhense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São João Ver ↓

Marinhense →

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

São João Ver or draw

47%

São João Ver or Marinhense

79%

Draw or Marinhense

75%

Winning margin

São João Ver wins by 2+

11%

Marinhense wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

São João Ver 1+ goals

75%

São João Ver 2+ goals

41%

São João Ver 3+ goals

17%

Marinhense 1+ goals

88%

Marinhense 2+ goals

62%

Marinhense 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

São João Ver (draw refunded)

32%

Marinhense (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

São João Ver at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Marinhense away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

São João Ver attack 2.20 + Marinhense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Marinhense attack 3.00 + São João Ver defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

São João Ver scores more

25%

level

21%

Marinhense scores more

53%

Marinhense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

98'

114'

M. Ribeiro Vinagre

119'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff