São João Ver vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Taça de Portugal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
São João Ver46%
Lusitânia Lourosa28%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
São João Ver creates 36% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
São João Ver ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
São João Ver at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches
Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
São João Ver attack 2.20 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50
Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.00 + São João Ver defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
São João Ver at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "São João Ver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
São João Ver host Lusitânia Lourosa on Sunday, 27 September 2020 at 14:00. The match is part of the Taça de Portugal 2018/2019 season.
Taça de Portugal: São João Ver 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa
São João Ver beat Lusitânia Lourosa 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.
The match was played at Estádio Clube São João de Ver in São João de Ver.