São João Ver 0–3 Famalicao: Result & Stats

São João Ver

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Famalicao

10/18/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

São João Ver39%

×Draw24%

Famalicao37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São João VerExpected goals in this matchFamalicao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.56

São João Ver

1.60

Famalicao

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.20

creates per match

1.93

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

São João Ver

2.20

Famalicao

1.93

allows per match

São João Ver

1.20

Famalicao

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São João Ver+0.00on par

Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São João Ver ↓

Famalicao →

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

São João Ver or draw

63%

São João Ver or Famalicao

76%

Draw or Famalicao

61%

Winning margin

São João Ver wins by 2+

19%

Famalicao wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

São João Ver 1+ goals

80%

São João Ver 2+ goals

47%

São João Ver 3+ goals

22%

Famalicao 1+ goals

79%

Famalicao 2+ goals

46%

Famalicao 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

São João Ver (draw refunded)

51%

Famalicao (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

São João Ver at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

São João Ver attack 2.20 + Famalicao defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Famalicao attack 1.93 + São João Ver defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

São João Ver scores more

39%

level

24%

Famalicao scores more

37%

São João Ver at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "São João Ver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff