São Gabriel 0–0 Juventude II: Result & Stats

São Gabriel

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juventude II

10/1/2025

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São Gabriel32%

×Draw29%

Juventude II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São GabrielExpected goals in this matchJuventude II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.20

São Gabriel

1.04

Juventude II

1.20

Juventude II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

0.00

creates per match

0.73

1.67

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

São Gabriel

0.00

Juventude II

0.73

allows per match

São Gabriel

1.67

Juventude II

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Gabriel+0.00on par

Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Gabriel ↓

Juventude II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

São Gabriel or draw

60%

São Gabriel or Juventude II

71%

Draw or Juventude II

68%

Winning margin

São Gabriel wins by 2+

12%

Juventude II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

São Gabriel 1+ goals

65%

São Gabriel 2+ goals

28%

São Gabriel 3+ goals

9%

Juventude II 1+ goals

70%

Juventude II 2+ goals

34%

Juventude II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

São Gabriel (draw refunded)

44%

Juventude II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Gabriel at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Gabriel attack 0.00 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Juventude II attack 0.73 + São Gabriel defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

São Gabriel scores more

32%

level

29%

Juventude II scores more

40%

Juventude II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventude II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff