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São Gabriel vs Esportivo — Copa Gaúcha 2024

São Gabriel
São Gabriel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Esportivo
Esportivo
9/17/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São Gabriel8%
×Draw22%
Esportivo70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Gabriel
0.40
Esportivo
1.73

Esportivo creates 332% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

São Gabriel
0.00
Esportivo
1.80

allows per match

São Gabriel
1.67
Esportivo
0.80

finishing

São Gabriel+0.00on par
Esportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Gabriel ↓

Esportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–121%
0–218%
0–310%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Gabriel or draw
30%
São Gabriel or Esportivo
78%
Draw or Esportivo
92%

Winning margin

São Gabriel wins by 2+
1%
Esportivo wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

São Gabriel 1+ goals
33%
São Gabriel 2+ goals
6%
São Gabriel 3+ goals
1%
Esportivo 1+ goals
82%
Esportivo 2+ goals
52%
Esportivo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

São Gabriel (draw refunded)
10%
Esportivo (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Gabriel at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Esportivo away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Gabriel attack 0.00 + Esportivo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.40

Esportivo attack 1.80 + São Gabriel defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

São Gabriel scores more
8%
level
22%
Esportivo scores more
70%

Esportivo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Esportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Gabriel vs Esportivo

Esportivo beat São Gabriel 2-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 17, 2025.