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São Gabriel vs Aimoré — Copa Gaúcha 2024

São Gabriel
São Gabriel
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Aimoré
Aimoré
10/22/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São Gabriel24%
×Draw30%
Aimoré47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Gabriel
0.78
Aimoré
1.23

Aimoré creates 58% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

São Gabriel
0.00
Aimoré
0.78

allows per match

São Gabriel
1.67
Aimoré
1.56

finishing

São Gabriel+0.00on par
Aimoré+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Gabriel ↓

Aimoré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

São Gabriel or draw
53%
São Gabriel or Aimoré
70%
Draw or Aimoré
76%

Winning margin

São Gabriel wins by 2+
7%
Aimoré wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

São Gabriel 1+ goals
54%
São Gabriel 2+ goals
18%
São Gabriel 3+ goals
4%
Aimoré 1+ goals
71%
Aimoré 2+ goals
35%
Aimoré 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

São Gabriel (draw refunded)
33%
Aimoré (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Gabriel at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Aimoré away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Gabriel attack 0.00 + Aimoré defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Aimoré attack 0.78 + São Gabriel defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

São Gabriel scores more
24%
level
30%
Aimoré scores more
47%

Aimoré at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aimoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: São Gabriel 0–3 Aimoré

Aimoré beat São Gabriel 3-0 in Copa Gaúcha on October 22, 2025.