Sao Francisco W 3–0 Sport Recife W: Result & Stats

Sao Francisco W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Recife W

3/20/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sao Francisco W54%

×Draw22%

Sport Recife W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Francisco WExpected goals in this matchSport Recife W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.21

Sao Francisco W

1.91

Sport Recife W

1.21

Sao Francisco W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

0.86

creates per match

0.78

1.64

allows per match

2.96

creates per match

Sao Francisco W

0.86

Sport Recife W

0.78

allows per match

Sao Francisco W

1.64

Sport Recife W

2.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Sport Recife W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw

76%

Sao Francisco W or Sport Recife W

78%

Draw or Sport Recife W

46%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+

31%

Sport Recife W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals

85%

Sao Francisco W 2+ goals

57%

Sao Francisco W 3+ goals

30%

Sport Recife W 1+ goals

70%

Sport Recife W 2+ goals

34%

Sport Recife W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)

69%

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more

54%

level

22%

Sport Recife W scores more

24%

Sao Francisco W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sao Francisco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff