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Sao Francisco W vs Sao Jose W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sao Francisco W
Sao Francisco W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
6/20/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sao Francisco W32%
×Draw27%
Sao Jose W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Francisco W
1.14
Sao Jose W
1.34

Sao Jose W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sao Francisco W
0.86
Sao Jose W
1.05

allows per match

Sao Francisco W
1.64
Sao Jose W
1.41

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par
Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Sao Jose W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw
59%
Sao Francisco W or Sao Jose W
73%
Draw or Sao Jose W
68%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+
13%
Sao Jose W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals
68%
Sao Francisco W 2+ goals
32%
Sao Francisco W 3+ goals
11%
Sao Jose W 1+ goals
74%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
39%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)
43%
Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Sao Jose W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Sao Jose W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sao Jose W attack 1.05 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more
32%
level
27%
Sao Jose W scores more
41%

Sao Jose W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sao Jose W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Sao Francisco W 0–0 Sao Jose W

Sao Francisco W and Sao Jose W drew 0-0 in Brasileiro Women on June 20, 2018.