Sao Francisco W 1–1 Ponte Preta W: Result & Stats

Sao Francisco W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ponte Preta W

4/14/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sao Francisco W48%

×Draw25%

Ponte Preta W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Francisco WExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

Sao Francisco W

1.59

Ponte Preta W

1.11

Sao Francisco W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

0.86

creates per match

0.59

1.64

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Sao Francisco W

0.86

Ponte Preta W

0.59

allows per match

Sao Francisco W

1.64

Ponte Preta W

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Ponte Preta W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw

73%

Sao Francisco W or Ponte Preta W

75%

Draw or Ponte Preta W

52%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+

25%

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals

80%

Sao Francisco W 2+ goals

47%

Sao Francisco W 3+ goals

21%

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals

67%

Ponte Preta W 2+ goals

30%

Ponte Preta W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)

65%

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more

48%

level

25%

Ponte Preta W scores more

27%

Sao Francisco W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sao Francisco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff