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Sao Francisco W vs Minas ICESP W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sao Francisco W
Sao Francisco W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
7/17/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sao Francisco W41%
×Draw27%
Minas ICESP W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Francisco W
1.34
Minas ICESP W
1.14

Sao Francisco W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sao Francisco W
0.86
Minas ICESP W
0.63

allows per match

Sao Francisco W
1.64
Minas ICESP W
1.83

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par
Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Minas ICESP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw
68%
Sao Francisco W or Minas ICESP W
73%
Draw or Minas ICESP W
59%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+
19%
Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals
74%
Sao Francisco W 2+ goals
39%
Sao Francisco W 3+ goals
15%
Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
68%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
32%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)
57%
Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.34

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more
41%
level
27%
Minas ICESP W scores more
32%

Sao Francisco W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sao Francisco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sao Francisco W 1 – 1 Minas ICESP W

Sao Francisco W and Minas ICESP W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on July 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia).