Sao Francisco W 0–3 Kindermann W: Result & Stats

Sao Francisco W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Kindermann W

8/7/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sao Francisco W34%

×Draw26%

Kindermann W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Francisco WExpected goals in this matchKindermann W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.38

Sao Francisco W

1.25

Kindermann W

1.38

Kindermann W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 55 away

0.86

creates per match

1.11

1.64

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sao Francisco W

0.86

Kindermann W

1.11

allows per match

Sao Francisco W

1.64

Kindermann W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Kindermann W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Kindermann W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw

60%

Sao Francisco W or Kindermann W

74%

Draw or Kindermann W

66%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+

15%

Kindermann W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals

71%

Sao Francisco W 2+ goals

36%

Sao Francisco W 3+ goals

13%

Kindermann W 1+ goals

75%

Kindermann W 2+ goals

40%

Kindermann W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)

46%

Kindermann W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Kindermann W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Kindermann W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kindermann W attack 1.11 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more

34%

level

26%

Kindermann W scores more

40%

Kindermann W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff