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Sao Francisco W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sao Francisco W
Sao Francisco W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
5/8/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sao Francisco W49%
×Draw24%
Gremio Osasco Audax W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Francisco W
1.75
Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.27

Sao Francisco W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sao Francisco W
0.86
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.91

allows per match

Sao Francisco W
1.64
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.65

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw
72%
Sao Francisco W or Gremio Osasco Audax W
76%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W
51%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+
26%
Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals
83%
Sao Francisco W 2+ goals
52%
Sao Francisco W 3+ goals
25%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
72%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
36%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)
64%
Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.91 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more
49%
level
24%
Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
28%

Sao Francisco W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sao Francisco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Francisco W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W

Gremio Osasco Audax W beat Sao Francisco W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia).