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Sao Francisco W vs Foz-Athletico W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sao Francisco W
Sao Francisco W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foz-Athletico W
Foz-Athletico W
4/20/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sao Francisco W45%
×Draw27%
Foz-Athletico W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Francisco W
1.37
Foz-Athletico W
1.01

Sao Francisco W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sao Francisco W
0.86
Foz-Athletico W
0.38

allows per match

Sao Francisco W
1.64
Foz-Athletico W
1.88

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par
Foz-Athletico W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Foz-Athletico W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw
72%
Sao Francisco W or Foz-Athletico W
73%
Draw or Foz-Athletico W
55%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+
21%
Foz-Athletico W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals
75%
Sao Francisco W 2+ goals
40%
Sao Francisco W 3+ goals
16%
Foz-Athletico W 1+ goals
64%
Foz-Athletico W 2+ goals
27%
Foz-Athletico W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)
62%
Foz-Athletico W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Foz-Athletico W away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Foz-Athletico W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Foz-Athletico W attack 0.38 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more
45%
level
27%
Foz-Athletico W scores more
28%

Sao Francisco W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sao Francisco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Sao Francisco W 0–1 Foz-Athletico W

Foz-Athletico W beat Sao Francisco W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Junqueira Ayres (São Francisco do Conde, Bahia).