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Sao Domingos AL vs Jacyobá — Alagoano - 2 2024

Sao Domingos AL
Sao Domingos AL
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jacyobá
Jacyobá
4/19/2026Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sao Domingos AL37%
×Draw22%
Jacyobá41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Domingos AL
1.75
Jacyobá
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sao Domingos AL
0.50
Jacyobá
0.17

allows per match

Sao Domingos AL
3.50
Jacyobá
3.00

finishing

Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par
Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Domingos AL ↓

Jacyobá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sao Domingos AL or draw
59%
Sao Domingos AL or Jacyobá
78%
Draw or Jacyobá
63%

Winning margin

Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+
19%
Jacyobá wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals
83%
Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals
52%
Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals
25%
Jacyobá 1+ goals
84%
Jacyobá 2+ goals
54%
Jacyobá 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)
48%
Jacyobá (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Domingos AL at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.50 + Jacyobá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jacyobá attack 0.17 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sao Domingos AL scores more
37%
level
22%
Jacyobá scores more
41%

Jacyobá at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jacyobá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Sao
Jacyobá
Nadelio Rocha
Manager: Nadelio Rocha
Distefano
Manager: Distefano

Alagoano - 2: Sao Domingos AL 0–0 Jacyobá

Sao Domingos AL and Jacyobá drew 0-0 in Alagoano - 2 on April 19, 2026.