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Sao Domingos AL vs Guarany Alagoano — Alagoano - 2 2024

Sao Domingos AL
Sao Domingos AL
FT
1 – 6
Guarany Alagoano
Guarany Alagoano
9/17/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sao Domingos AL6%
×Draw12%
Guarany Alagoano82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Domingos AL
0.71
Guarany Alagoano
2.93

Guarany Alagoano creates 313% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sao Domingos AL
0.50
Guarany Alagoano
2.36

allows per match

Sao Domingos AL
3.50
Guarany Alagoano
0.91

finishing

Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par
Guarany Alagoano+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Domingos AL ↓

Guarany Alagoano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–212%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sao Domingos AL or draw
18%
Sao Domingos AL or Guarany Alagoano
88%
Draw or Guarany Alagoano
94%

Winning margin

Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+
2%
Guarany Alagoano wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals
51%
Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals
16%
Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals
4%
Guarany Alagoano 1+ goals
94%
Guarany Alagoano 2+ goals
78%
Guarany Alagoano 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)
7%
Guarany Alagoano (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Domingos AL at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Guarany Alagoano away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.50 + Guarany Alagoano defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.71

Guarany Alagoano attack 2.36 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Sao Domingos AL scores more
6%
level
12%
Guarany Alagoano scores more
82%

Guarany Alagoano at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Guarany Alagoano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Domingos AL vs Guarany Alagoano

Guarany Alagoano beat Sao Domingos AL 6-1 in Alagoano - 2 on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim in São Miguel dos Campos, Alagoas.