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Sao Domingos AL vs Dimensão Saúde — Alagoano - 2 2024

Sao Domingos AL
Sao Domingos AL
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Dimensão Saúde
Dimensão Saúde
Guilherme 90', 79'
C. Davy 62'
Vicente Thomaz 55'
Damiao 9'
9/26/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sao Domingos AL12%
×Draw16%
Dimensão Saúde72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Domingos AL
1.00
Dimensão Saúde
2.63

Dimensão Saúde creates 163% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sao Domingos AL
0.50
Dimensão Saúde
1.75

allows per match

Sao Domingos AL
3.50
Dimensão Saúde
1.50

finishing

Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par
Dimensão Saúde+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Domingos AL ↓

Dimensão Saúde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sao Domingos AL or draw
28%
Sao Domingos AL or Dimensão Saúde
84%
Draw or Dimensão Saúde
88%

Winning margin

Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+
4%
Dimensão Saúde wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals
63%
Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals
26%
Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals
8%
Dimensão Saúde 1+ goals
93%
Dimensão Saúde 2+ goals
73%
Dimensão Saúde 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)
15%
Dimensão Saúde (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Domingos AL at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Dimensão Saúde away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.50 + Dimensão Saúde defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dimensão Saúde attack 1.75 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sao Domingos AL scores more
12%
level
16%
Dimensão Saúde scores more
72%

Dimensão Saúde at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Dimensão Saúde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Damiao
55'
Vicente Thomaz
62'
C. Davy
79'
Guilherme
90'
Guilherme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Sao Domingos AL 0–5 Dimensão Saúde

Dimensão Saúde beat Sao Domingos AL 5-0 in Alagoano - 2 on September 26, 2024.

Goals: Damiao (9'), Vicente Thomaz (55'), C. Davy (62'), Guilherme (79', 90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim in São Miguel dos Campos, Alagoas.