Sao Domingos AL 0–3 CEO: Result & Stats

Sao Domingos AL

FT

0 – 3

CEO

10/3/2024

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sao Domingos AL10%

×Draw18%

CEO72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Domingos ALExpected goals in this matchCEO

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

2.15

Sao Domingos AL

0.65

CEO

2.15

CEO creates 231% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

0.80

3.50

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Sao Domingos AL

0.50

CEO

0.80

allows per match

Sao Domingos AL

3.50

CEO

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par

CEO+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Domingos AL ↓

CEO →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–214%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sao Domingos AL or draw

28%

Sao Domingos AL or CEO

82%

Draw or CEO

90%

Winning margin

Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+

2%

CEO wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals

48%

Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals

14%

Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals

3%

CEO 1+ goals

88%

CEO 2+ goals

63%

CEO 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)

12%

CEO (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Domingos AL at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

CEO away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.50 + CEO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

CEO attack 0.80 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sao Domingos AL scores more

10%

level

18%

CEO scores more

72%

CEO at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "CEO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff