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Sao Carlos vs Barcelona EC — Paulista Série B 2026

Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Barcelona EC
Barcelona EC
G. Malheiro 90+2'
P. H. Tosatti de Sousa 80'
B. Santos Santana 44' (OG)
6/15/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sao Carlos82%
×Draw13%
Barcelona EC5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Carlos
2.58
Barcelona EC
0.50

Sao Carlos creates 416% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sao Carlos
2.06
Barcelona EC
0.11

allows per match

Sao Carlos
0.89
Barcelona EC
3.11

finishing

Sao Carlos+0.00on par
Barcelona EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Carlos ↓

Barcelona EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sao Carlos or draw
95%
Sao Carlos or Barcelona EC
87%
Draw or Barcelona EC
18%

Winning margin

Sao Carlos wins by 2+
60%
Barcelona EC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sao Carlos 1+ goals
92%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
72%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
47%
Barcelona EC 1+ goals
39%
Barcelona EC 2+ goals
9%
Barcelona EC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
94%
Barcelona EC (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Carlos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Barcelona EC away — creates 0.11, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Carlos attack 2.06 + Barcelona EC defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.58

Barcelona EC attack 0.11 + Sao Carlos defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Sao Carlos scores more
82%
level
13%
Barcelona EC scores more
5%

Sao Carlos at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Sao Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
B. Santos SantanaOwn goal
80'
P. H. Tosatti de Sousa
90+2'
G. Malheiro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Carlos vs Barcelona EC

Sao Carlos beat Barcelona EC 3-0 in Paulista Série B on June 15, 2024.

Goals: B. Santos Santana (44' o.g.), P. H. Tosatti de Sousa (80'), G. Malheiro (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira in São Carlos, São Paulo.