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São Carlos U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Carlos U20
São Carlos U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
J. Osorio 80'
Marquinhos 68', 66', 19'
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São Carlos U2014%
×Draw17%
XV de Jaú U2068%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Carlos U20
1.04
XV de Jaú U20
2.48

XV de Jaú U20 creates 138% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

São Carlos U20
1.00
XV de Jaú U20
1.55

allows per match

São Carlos U20
3.40
XV de Jaú U20
1.09

finishing

São Carlos U20+0.00on par
XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Carlos U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

São Carlos U20 or draw
32%
São Carlos U20 or XV de Jaú U20
83%
Draw or XV de Jaú U20
86%

Winning margin

São Carlos U20 wins by 2+
5%
XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

São Carlos U20 1+ goals
65%
São Carlos U20 2+ goals
28%
São Carlos U20 3+ goals
9%
XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
92%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
70%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

São Carlos U20 (draw refunded)
17%
XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Carlos U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Carlos U20 attack 1.00 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + São Carlos U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

São Carlos U20 scores more
14%
level
17%
XV de Jaú U20 scores more
68%

XV de Jaú U20 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Marquinhos
66'
Marquinhos
68'
Marquinhos
80'
J. Osorio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São Carlos U20 0–4 XV de Jaú U20

XV de Jaú U20 beat São Carlos U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: Marquinhos (19', 66', 68'), J. Osorio (80').

The match was played at Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira in São Carlos, São Paulo.